japan effect on the economy

[308reloaded]

what is going to happen with world economy now that japan has been slammed by mother nature.  and with the worry of nuclear melt down fears.  of course they have some hand on experience with this already.  you know it will effect us all some how.  rice could triple in cost before this is all over.  bet china will loan them the money to rebuild. 

[Robocop1051]

Actually, California is responsible for a majority of the rice eaten in the world. If anything, there will now be a surplus of rice, thus causing the price to drop.

The US has become quite independent from Japan over the years... Only to replace that dependency on China. A few less imported Hondas and Toyotas, won't affect the market. The nice thing is Japan has been a neutral/friendly country to most of the world for the last 50 years. I'll bet they are rebuilt in a year. When I was there last, they said their building constraints were primarily from lack of space. Nothing like a little natural disaster to open up some clean real estate for building.

Don't be surprised if we see an all new Japan in the next few years.

[308reloaded]

there should be a surplus of auto parts low miles and only wet and muddy once.  its not funny  but I cant help it.  maybe now I will be able to buy cheaper parts for my Yanmar tractor.  makes me glad I'm in the hills and above sea level

[Dusty44]

The stock market analysts and traders (blogs) say that many of the most critical high-tech (a lot of critical electronic components) parts were being made in the parts of Japan that were flooded or where the electrical supply and infrastructure is most damaged.  Cannot run a factory where there is no running water or sewage.  Not just in the factory but in the surrounding area.  The population is also forced to relocate until the damage is repaired,  no workers for the factories.

As parts become unavailable,  many other factories in places like Taiwan and China will be forced to halt production.  The effect will take time,  but eventually a lot of products will be unavailable or more expensive or both.  No repair parts,  either.  Think in terms of a supply crunch for the US starting in late summer and extending 6 to 12 months at least and in some cases indefinitely.

There is a thread of thought that some industry will relocate somewhere not in Japan and take skilled workforce along.  Reduce exposure to earthquakes and tsunami's;  complete rebuild of housing and infrastructure would be no more expensive than in Japan and maybe cheaper even with relocation of the workforce.  No details or other information;  may just be an idea within some corporate management that may or may not be possible.

None of this is 'for sure.'  Watch and see how it all plays out?

[Cabinetman]

What will happen?  It's already happening.  Toyota has closed a plant here in the US laying off 25000 workers and is slowing down another plant in the UK. They are actually closing early and staying closed after the Easter holiday. 

The real problem, however, will come in June/July when the earnings reports are issued by the auto industry (primarily Japan's products) and also the electronics industries including all the big names; Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Panasonic, etc.  They have been interrupted because there are no replacement parts to be found due to the tsunami.  Europe could take up some of the slack but they're in such dire straits financially themselves that they can't respond quickly enough.

So, early Summer could be quite a wet blanket on our economy.  The markets still don't understand (or refuse to understand) the breadth and depth of the damage to Japan.  They will when all those markets have red all over their earnings reports.  That tsunomi is the trigger that will make any recovery impossible for quite a while.

Rome