Gilroy

[Sisco]

A salute to those three LEO’s who were able to stop the shooter before it got worse. Bad as it is, they took action that saved lives. 

[unforgiven]

Quick response saved lives for sure 👍. These fuktards are intent on killing just to kill.

[98Z5V]

AK-47-"type" was identified as the firearm.  Of course "assault rifle" was used as well.  In Gilroy, California.    Things are gonna get ugly, with another debate coming in the next two days, the rhetoric is gonna ratchet up, and the details of this effed up situation are gonna get smothered - unless it's gun details that the Dem Debate members can use.  There's gonna be alot of made-up information spewed in the next two nights, on stage...

[Robocop1051]

It was further identified as an SKS, which falls outside the CA definition of an assault weapon. 

[Peachey]

As of right now they can't decide for sure what it was. Just read that now the local police spokesperson retracted the SKS comment earlier and is back on the AK variant. Other outlets are saying it was specifically a Romanian WASR 10. I'm sure it'll come out if it was a AKM, if it's a SKS it'll probably be swept under the rug.

[Cunuckgaucho]

6 hours ago, Sisco said:

A salute to those three LEO’s who were able to stop the shooter before it got worse. Bad as it is, they took action that saved lives. 

A good person with a gun is the best antidote for a bad person with a gun.  

3 hours ago, Robocop1051 said:

It was further identified as an SKS, which falls outside the CA definition of an assault weapon. 

Well if your media is similar to our media it's an assault rifle why let facts get in the way.

[392heminut]

On 7/29/2019 at 11:44 PM, Cunuckgaucho said:

 

Well if your media is similar to our media it's an assault rifle why let facts get in the way.

THAT right there! ^^^^^

[Lane]

Let's be honest about those facts. An SKS is the cheapest possible buy; and he lived in NV as a resident. Even if it was an AK; he simply needed to change out the pistol grip for a fin to be legal in CA. I can't find hard facts on this either, the media coverage is pretty disgusting. 

[98Z5V]

“Illegal Rifle!” in Gilroy, CA

By Keith Finch - July 30, 2019

https://gatdaily.com/illegal-rifle-in-gilroy-ca/?trk_msg=OJHKDT7L789KJ06UQ6E1FKO1KS&trk_contact=8V0L65B89JG3CKL2PPP2IG35AC&trk_module=new&trk_sid=AUM495LBFA1CV71BDO4UN822P4

The LA Times is reporting that the 19 year old shooter who killed 3, before being killed in a gunfight with the police at the Gilroy Garlic Festival, used a rifle. An illegal rifle to possess in California.

Originally stated to be a WASR-10, a lower cost AK variant, that description has since been updated to “an AK-47 variant” and a few sources have said SKS, which I believe given the sources of “AK variant”. Regardless of final clarity, the rifle was purchased legally in Nevada and then illegally brought to California. The shooter passed his NICS background check.

“That weapon could not be sold in California. That weapon cannot be imported into the state of California,” Becerra said in response to a question about the assault-style rifle used in the shooting.

Becerra added: “There is a very strong likelihood as we develop the evidence that the perpetrator in this particular case violated California law on top of the crimes of homicide and so forth, the crimes that we have that are meant to prevent individuals from carrying out this type of activity.” – via CNN

Pre-crime precognition isn’t a thing so… what’s to be done? California government officials have expressed sentiments along the lines of, ‘can’t defend themselves from the Second Amendment’… implying that constitutionally protected civil rights are to blame.

“I can’t put borders up … in a neighboring state where you can buy this damn stuff legally,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday morning, calling for action from Washington, DC. “I have no problem with the Second Amendment, you have a right to bear arms but not weapons of … mass destruction.”

Of course we should blame Nevada, the gun store there, the US Constitution, the NRA, who else… who else? “The shooter?”, someone would inquire from the back of the room. No, that’s preposterous! It was white supremacist rhetoric and Donald Trump! [/sarcasm]

The 19 year old shooter has been linked to a text, “Might is Right” by Ragnar Redbeard, believed to be Arthur Desmond, a late 19th century British born author, poet, and politician who espoused a dark bend of survivalist, darwinist, ‘kill-or be-killed’, the strong should rule the weak type mentality known as egoist anarchism. The text is also heavily anti-christian.

What’s it all mean?

It means that anti-2A politicians, media types, and groups are going to use the attack to further fuel their base for vaporware “common sense gun safety” legislation. It means the 3 who died and those that were wounded have become political ammo for further regulations in California and across the nation. But mostly it means making something illegal doesn’t stop it. Illegal never has, illegal never will.

Mass violence is not new. It is not unique to the United States. A killer did an illegal thing with an “illegal rifle.” Did that make the situation any better, California? The fact that it was double against the law?

No, it didn’t. But what did, ironically, were the people with guns. The officers who stopped the attack on a defenseless crowd by a lunatic with delusions of grandeur, they made things better. Perhaps most ironic, the shooter proved himself the weak one, by his own espoused ideologic theory he should have been culled.

Wish granted, a$shole.

Edited August 1, 2019 by 98Z5V

[Cunuckgaucho]

A ways back some political genius in Canada notice that a lot of gun crime was committed by people using .25 and .32 cal pistol so it seems the obvious solution was to make .25 & .32 handguns prohibited. This is the mentality of the people passing or fighting for gun bans.

 As humans if a tool is unavailable to use we either find another tool that does the job or improvise.  People in countries like Japan and China with limited access to firearms still mange to find ways to commit mass murder

Also a truth antis don't like is that there is no direct correlation between the number of guns per capita and the murder per capita.

Firearms ownership top 10

1	United States	120.5	Americas	Northern America	326,474,000	393,347,000	1	1,073,743	392,273,257	[note 2]
2	Falkland Islands	62.1	Americas	South America	3,000	2,000	2	1,705	295
3	Yemen	52.8	Asia	Western Asia	28,120,000	14,859,000	2	N/A	N/A
4	New Caledonia	42.5	Oceania	Melanesia	270,000	115,000	2	55,000	60,000
5	Montenegro	39.1	Europe	Southern Europe	626,000	245,000	3	103,536	141,464
6	Serbia	39.1	Europe	Southern Europe	6,946,000	2,719,000	2	1,186,086	1,532,914
7	Canada	34.7	Americas	Northern America	36,626,000	12,708,000	2	2,081,442	10,626,558
8	Uruguay	34.7	Americas	South America	3,457,000	1,198,000	2	605,313	592,687
9	Cyprus	34.0	Asia	Western Asia	839,000	285,000	2	154,327	130,673
10	Finland	32.4	Europe	Northern Europe	5,541,000	1,793,000	1	1,542,396	250,604	[note 3]

Gun deaths top 10

Saint Kitts	2015	51.99	40.43	0 (2012)	11.55	0(2012)	3.40 (2017)	Guns in St Kitts & Nevis[82]
Venezuela	2013	49.73	26.48	0.14	.26	22.34	18.50 (2017)	Guns in Venezuela[98]
El Salvador	2014	44.45	44.34	0.11	0.05 (2013)	0.05 (2013)	12 (2017)	Guns in El Salvador[30]
Eswatini	2004	37.16	37.16	?	?	?	4.8 (2017)	Guns in Swaziland[32]
Jamaica	2015	35.22	33.22	0.31	0.14	7.84 (2011)	8.8 (2017)	Guns in Jamaica[50]
Bahamas	2013	34.79	110	0	0	0.33	18.8 (2017)	Guns in Bahamas [12]
Guatemala	2015	25.48	20.41	0.29	4.78	4.17 (2010)	12.1 (2017)	Guns in Guatemala[39]
Trinidad & Tobago	2011	23.71	21.26	0.16	0.16	0.08	3.201 (2017)	Guns in Trinidad & Tobago[88]
Belize	2015	22.50	20.57	0.82	1.10	0 (2014)	10 (2017)	Guns in Belize [16]
Brazil	2015	22.00	20.47	0.44	0.15	0.47	8.3 (2017)	Guns in Brazil[18]

 

 

Interesting in that if a person drives a vehicle into a crowd of people no one tries to blame the brand/model of the vehicle and ban it. If alcohol was a factor no one tries to ban  the specific brand of booze.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Cunuckgaucho

[98Z5V]

3 minutes ago, Cunuckgaucho said:

Also a truth antis don't like is that there is no direct correlation between the number of guns per capita and the murder per capita.

You have no idea how happy I am that you used "correlation" in here.   I've been sitting on this article for a few weeks, waiting to work it into a real discussion.  

Correlation and Causation… again: “Children” Edition

By Keith Finch - July 17, 2019

https://gatdaily.com/correlation-and-causation-again-children-edition/?trk_msg=JD7G10GKUTFK17MMQCDA07JVCS&trk_contact=8V0L65B89JG3CKL2PPP2IG35AC&trk_module=new&trk_sid=7SVM9CRTIVQGB47G51LMMF4N2S

Do gun safety laws decrease child deaths?

Children in states with strict gun laws less likely to die, study says

Correlation. Does. Not. Equal. Causation.

A study released on Monday has led to a flurry of headlines stating the latest study of gun control has found that states with Universal Background Check laws (UBC’s) had lower child mortality rates due to firearms. Most of those headlines read like the second one above, if not even more emphatically linking the mortality rate to UBC’s

But the first headline, from PBS, is the most accurate inquiry into the data. In the first paragraph they answer that question.

There may be a connection between tougher gun laws and fewer child fatalities from firearms, a new study suggested Monday. The study, published in the journal Pediatrics, says states with universal background checks report fewer children’s deaths due to gun incidents. However, more data is needed to understand the relationship between firearms and public health, and to conclude whether such laws save lives, the study maintains. [emphasis mine]

They don’t know. But they don’t want to say that. Not too loudly at least.

They found a correlative link but do not have causative break downs. Anyone inside statistical analysis will tell you highlighting a single input, like UBC’s, and then projecting them as the assumed causative (as the headlines do) is simple lying with statistics.

Reading into the various pieces further they are very careful with their language. They are attempting every possible linguistic method to keep UBC’s as the assumed causative because it was the correlative they found to push the narrative.

According to the study, 21,241 children died due to firearm use between 2011 and 2015, based on federal data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That produces a firearm-related fatality rate of 4.65 per 100,000 U.S. children. -PBS

The key terms are children and died. “Died” will include suicides, homicides, and accidents, all of which have very different causative circumstances but ending in the same result. The study generalized all of these factors to try and forward the idea that a UBC is the common solution in the reduced rate of mortality. Precisely how, or even a blind shot in the dark as to a reason, a UBC would influence suicide or accident rates is not expressed.

Among states with universal background checks, Goyal said the study suggests a 35-percent drop in child firearm fatality rates compared to states without those laws.

Suggests. Another careful word choice that doesn’t tie them into verifying the causative relations to their premise. The publishers want you to believe this is why (the UBC’s) it works without deep delving into the how or why that could possibly be the case.

Also their numbers seem to include a very interesting extension of “children”…

The study also grouped in young people between the ages of 18 and 21 into its accounting of child fatalities, which critics say painted a disingenuous picture for a study focused on child deaths.

Considering these “children” can vote, smoke, drink (21), and enlist for war, yeah I’d go with pretty disingenuous. My 21st birthday was after the start of my 4th year of service…

Children evokes an emotive response in us. It’s supposed too, we are wired to defend our offspring on a macro level. So using the term children in the headlines is to evoke that image of a child, 0-12 years of age. But including teens and young adults, who are developmentally and functionally at or near an autonomous adult level, are used too heavily pad the number.

What would the rate look like if we take the 18-21 year old “children” out?

Age group 0-17, 2012-2014 National Vital Statistics System via AAP News & Journals

By excluding the legal adult, voting age, military age male and female portion of the study the mortality rate drops to only 37.8% of what the study claims. From 4.65 to only 1.76 per 100,000. By including the young adults the study is able to nearly triple their mortality rate.

I’m not saying these deaths aren’t of note. They are. What I am saying is that equating these deaths to that of a 6 year old is back to using statistics to lie.

What about actual children? Excluding both teens and young adults? What is the danger to the truly and fully dependant age ranges?

Age group 0-12 NVSS

Less than 1/10th of the deaths are children. Over 90% of the 21,241 are over the age of 12. Over 60% are over the age of 18!

So why isn’t this study correlating that UBC’s have a 35% reductive effect on firearms deaths among young adults? Why use the term children?

Simple. Dead children evoke an emotive response. But when placed in perspective things change.

CDC Childhood Injury Report: Patterns of Unintentional Injuries among 0-19 year olds in the United States, 2000-2006.

Drowning rates varied by age group with the highest rates among children 1-4 years of age at 3.0 per 100,000; among this group, drowning represented 27% of all unintentional injury deaths.

The unintentional drowning rate is six times higher for children age 1-4 than all firearm related deaths of children age 0-12. Granted these are different studies, different year ranges, and only some overlapping age ranges not direct data point to data point.

The point, however, is that when we break down the data into useable pieces the headline presumption completely falls apart. The headlines are deliberately shaping a correlation causation relationship that has no substantiation and is, in point of practical analysis, a farce.

The conclusion the study wanted was that a gun control measure, UBC’s in the case, reduced gun deaths. What they produced was a piece of misconstrued data to fit their message, and evoked the emotive “dead children” card.

When we break down the data we can draw some conclusions.

1. Crime among young adult, especially male, results in the majority of homicide gun deaths
2. Suicide among young adults is also a massive contributing factor to gun deaths
3. Young adults are the majority contributor to all of these stat blocks

The UBC might have a peripheral influence on criminal homicide and suicide deaths with a number of attached suppositions.

Supposition A. That a transfer that was blocked was the only method for the person committing suicide or committing homicide to get the weapon.

Supposition B. That the firearm was the only method that person had considered to complete the action of suicide or homicide and that they will not commit otherwise by any other method.

Supposition C. The person looking to commit suicide or homicide is unwilling to break the UBC law.

Supposition D. The person looking to commit the suicide or homicide is already properly flagged by background as prohibited.

Conclusions

Well… conclusion, singular. This is just another massaged set of data where they’ve shucked away the useable bits and burned the credibility for the sake of promoting a message. *le sigh* Correlation AND causation folks… they matter. They really do if you genuinely want to improve on these problems.

[Cunuckgaucho]

Glad to oblige

If antis want to argue singular correlation,especially if they bring up Japan and it's lack of firearms.We then see then we that Japan has an extremely low rate of firearm ownership but a high suicide rate.

Using antis 'logic' we can now determine that lack of firearm ownership/use leads to suicide. Any rational thinking person can see that these two single items are not connected.

[Cunuckgaucho]

19 minutes ago, 98Z5V said:

 

When we break down the data we can draw some conclusions.

1. Crime among young adult, especially male, results in the majority of homicide gun deaths
2. Suicide among young adults is also a massive contributing factor to gun deaths
3. Young adults are the majority contributor to all of these stat blocks

 

What happens to the overall gun crime rate per capita and the USA's position in comparison to the other countries if one were to remove Chicago,Detroit and Washington DC from the calculations? Ironically places with strict gun laws and low per capita legal ownership.

[98Z5V]

5 minutes ago, Cunuckgaucho said:

Using antis 'logic' we can now determine that lack of firearm ownership/use leads to suicide. Any rational thinking person can see that these two single items are not connected.

Exactly so.  Using their logic, we can definitely say that the amount of US spending on space, science and technology directly correlates with the amount of Suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation...